Where now for Scottish independence
by John McAllion, 11-05-2011
There will be a referendum in the lifetime of this Scottish Parliament. That much we know for certain. The SNP’s unprecedented parliamentary majority will guarantee at least that. Beyond that certainty, however, very little else is clear.
No sooner was the election over than Tory taunts to “bring on” an early referendum were in full flood. Tory leader Annabel Goldie called on Alex Salmond to take a “brave pill” and get on with it.
Inside the Westminster labyrinth, political dinosaurs like Michael Forsyth began to stir with threats to amend the Scotland Bill currently creeping its way through their noble Lords’ House.
The one time Scottish Secretary judged that an amendment empowering the Coalition Government to conduct a referendum on Scottish independence would put Westminster back in the driving seat of Scottish politics. Always a talented trouble maker, he had immediately recognised the huge unionist advantage to be derived from not only the timing but also the wording of the referendum question being decided in Westminster rather than in Holyrood.
Beyond that advantage, most unionists calculated that the tsunami of votes cast for the SNP did not signify support for Scottish independence. Scotland’s voters, they argued, knew that before that could happen there would have to be a referendum and that in that referendum they could vote no.
With all the opinion polls pointing to a pro-union majority among Scottish voters, the Tory right remained supremely confident that an early referendum would bury the independence question for a generation and leave the SNP in office but without the power to deliver on their ultimate goal of independence.
Salmond, of course, will ignore all of this Tory noise. He recognises it as bluster with little of substance to back it up. The Scottish election not only handed his party an unparalleled mandate to govern Scotland. It also further humiliated the already widely hated Scottish Tories, while all but destroying those new political hate figures the Scottish Lib-Dems.
A governing coalition of these two parties, with its mainly English power base, would not dare to impose a rigged referendum on a newly elected and still widely popular Scottish Government. Scottish Secretary Michael Moore has already acknowledged as much by announcing that the Westminster Government will not bring forward a referendum bill. Prime Minister Cameron has confirmed that the issue of a referendum is for the Scottish and not for the Westminster Government.
Salmond therefore can now decide both the timing and the wording of the future referendum. He has already made it clear that there will not be a referendum until “well into the second half” of the new Parliament’s five year term. Instead his Government’s immediate priority will be to argue for a beefing up of the range of devolved powers to be delivered in the short term through the Scotland Bill currently working its way through Westminster.
This approach chimes with his own long term strategy of winning popular support for independence through a gradual building of respect for the SNP’s governing credibility. The result of the Scottish election will convince him that this strategy is working. The minority SNP Government of 2007 not only survived for its full four year term. Its record of achievement in office was such that in the subsequent election Scottish voters rewarded it with the best result for any party since the dawn of devolution.
Yet, the prospects of a yes vote for full independence being delivered via a referendum vote in 2014 or 2015 remain remote. Despite his outright parliamentary majority, Salmond will not impose an independence referendum on the defeated opposition parties. He too fears a no vote and has accordingly indicated his willingness to consult with the opposition over the structure and the wording of any referendum.
He has allowed suggestions to be floated in favour of a multi-option referendum with voters free to choose between the status quo, full fiscal autonomy or outright independence. Another suggestion floated is for a single question that authorises the Scottish Government to negotiate an independence settlement with Westminster without any attempt to define in any detail what such a settlement might involve.
It is becoming increasingly clear that Salmond is looking for enough wriggle room to allow him to manipulate the referendum process in line with his own gradualist vision of how Scottish independence will come about. Here lies real cause for concern.
Salmond has always been an arch pragmatist. Having tasted high office for a four year term, he now wants a second and even a third term. He is ready to pay any political price for that, including constitutional change that falls far short of full independence.
If continuing SNP electoral success requires a new constitutional settlement that leaves the monarchy still ruling over us, he’s up for that. If it means keeping Treasury control over Scotland’s currency, he can live with that. If it means retention of the British armed forces, he will argue for continuing military co-operation between Scotland and the rest of the UK. Independence, he will argue, is a process not an event. We know that there will be a referendum. We do not yet know what that referendum will be all about.