PAYING FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT, WATER AND SEWERAGE SERVICES FAIRLY: THE CASE FOR A SCOTTISH SERVICE TAX AND SCOTTISH WATER CHARGE

Professor Mike Danson and Geoff Whittam
Economics & Enterprise
University of Paisley
Paisley PA1 2BE

1. INTRODUCTION

Since the original research paper to the Scottish Socialist Party proposing the introduction of a progressive Scottish Service Tax to raise funds for local government expenditure in a more equitable way, there have been a number of comments, feedback and developments which suggest that this is an opportune time to update the earlier report. Meanwhile, the fiscal constraints imposed by Westminster and by the more rigorous application of the Barnett formula (Heald and Geaughan 1999) are continuing to restrict the ability of the Scottish Parliament to address the problems in health, education, housing, poverty and jobs. Given the constraints of the devolution settlement, the proposals outlined in this paper for a Scottish Service Tax seek to introduce a progressive, redistributive tax system as a way of tackling poverty and under-investment in the public sector with the abolition of the council tax.

Further, currently the Scottish Water Bill is establishing a countrywide single water authority through the merger of the three existing regional bodies. This is being promoted partly because of the need to modernise the water and sewerage system through massive investment in this most basic of public utilities. This investment programme is also designed to meet the competitive challenges differentially faced in supplying domestic and non-domestic users, to raise efficiency and to equalise the rate of water charge across Scotland. Collectively these developments suggest that this is an opportune time also, therefore, to consider introducing a fairer way to finance the domestic shares of this investment and the use of water and sewerage services.

This report is structured as follows: in the following section the case is recalled for improved levels of public service expenditure in Scotland to promote social inclusion and justice. Section 3 analyses the tax and benefit system in the UK to demonstrate how the poor pay for their poverty and the tax system in aggregate is regressive. Section 4 considers the current political context of local government finance, discussing the need for a review of how councils are funded in Scotland. Section 5 explores the advantages realised for public expenditure interventions across the developed world, with a brief examination of the international literature and experience of regional and federal tax systems in Section 6. The form, structure and impediments to the introduction of local income tax are discussed in Section 7, before the powers of the Scottish Parliament and its capacity to introduce a progressive Scottish Service Tax are assessed in Section 8. The contribution of non-domestic consumers of local services is addressed in Section 9, with proposals initially to return control over business rates to local authorities with a land value tax system introduced later. The detailed proposals for a Scottish Service Tax are discussed in Section 10. The efficiency and equity advantages of replacing the current methods of charging Scottish households for water and sewerage with a progressive Scottish Water Charge are examined in Section 11, with parallel changes for non-domestic users discussed in Section 12. The report is concluded in Section 13.

2. THE NEEDS: PUBLIC SERVICES AND INCLUSION

Without doubt, the quality of life in Scotland has suffered from underinvestment for many years. Across transport, health, education, housing and social services it has become increasingly clear that public services need major attention if Britain and Scotland are not to fall even further behind our continental partners. While services have been cut, throughout the public sector there is evidence of worsening skills shortages as the short-term labour market effects of wage restraint are exacerbated by deterioration in working conditions. Long-term problems are now being generated by underinvestment in staff, infrastructure and equipment, made worse by the use of the private finance initiative (PFI) and public-private partnerships (PPP), which progressively will reduce the funds available for re-investment in the future. Additionally, poverty and deprivation in towns, cities and rural communities throughout Scotland have been catalogued as severe and endemic (Scottish Executive 1999; CPAG 2002).

The introduction of the euro, the UK Chancellor's pursuit of the five Maastricht criteria, and the implications of increasing globalisation on European, national and regional economies are exacerbating the effects of the Barnett squeeze. Against this background, pent-up demand to address the underinvestment in Scotland and the expectation that the Scottish Parliament can make a real difference have made the need for innovative policy formation an imperative for Holyrood if a more inclusive, cohesive and efficient Scotland is to be gained.

3. WHO PAYS?

Paralleling this underinvestment, over the last quarter century it has been the poorest in the community who have lost out from changes in the tax and benefit systems. The move away from progressive direct taxation to regressive indirect taxation has led to the situation where the people on the lowest income pay a greater percentage of their income in tax than those on the highest levels of income; the poor contributing to the financing of public expenditure to a greater extent than hitherto and than elsewhere in the EU. The increase in inequality is illustrated in the following table, particularly:

Table 1: Proportion of income taken in all taxes, UK, 1983-1995

Income group

1983

1995

1999/2000

Poorest fifth

27%

39%

41%

Richest fifth

41%

36%

35%

Source: Economic Trends 1998, 2001

In taking evidence from its former special advisor, the Local Government Committee were informed that 'what matters is that the whole system of taxation is progressive' (Col 246 5, 11 December 2001), and so there is no particular need for the property tax to be changed in favour of a Scottish Service Tax. However, Professor Midwinter has missed the conclusions of the Government's own statistical service: as demonstrated by Table 3.1 in our previous report (reproduced above) where we cited figures from Economic Trends 1998, published in 2001, which showed that the proportion of income taken in all taxes from the poorest fifth was 41% in 1999/2000 but only 35% for the richest fifth. The system is not progressive as a whole; indeed the opposite is the case and this is in stark contrast with the position in 1983 when the proportions were 27% and 41% respectively. In this his third criticism of the proposals to replace the regressive Council Tax (the other two are analysed below), Professor Midwinter inadvertently presents a strong argument in favour of abolition and so of support for the SST or equivalent which addresses this overall inequity within the UK and Scottish tax system.

Since 1994/95, relative poverty has worsened with the proportion of households living below low income thresholds - defined in terms of average incomes - tending to rise as the economy has grown (Households Below Average Income 1994/5 to 1998/9, DSS, 2000). Indeed, the DSS confirm that 'the proportion of the population below half average contemporary income (AHC) was 24 per cent in 1991/92, 1996/97, 1997/98 and in 1998/99'.

Table 2: Share of total income by the top and bottom 10% of income groups, 1979 & 1995/96, Great Britain

Income group

1979 (%)

1995/96 (%)

1998/99 (%)

Bottom 10%

4.0

2.2

3.0

Top 10%

21

27

27

Bottom 50%

32

25

27

Top 50%

68

75

73

Source: DSS Households Below Average Income, 1979-1996/7 and 1998/99, Government Statistical Service, 1998 and 2000

As Table 3 demonstrates, the position has not yet shown signs of improving. This suggests that changes made up to 1998/99 had not reversed the increasing inequalities of the previous two decades. Considering this another way, between 1994/95 and 1997/98, the gross incomes of the poorest 10% of taxpayers increased by 14.2%, while the incomes of the top 5% grew by 15.7%, and the top 1% saw their incomes improve by a massive 37%.

 

Table 3: Shares of total income received by individuals below and above various percentiles of the income distribution, Great Britain

Income group

1994/5

1997/8

1998/9

Income Before Housing Costs

Share of total income (%)

Bottom 10% of the income distribution

3.1

3.0

3.0

Bottom 20% of the income distribution

7.9

7.6

7.5

Bottom 30% of the income distribution

14

13

13

Bottom 40% of the income distribution

20

20

19

Bottom 50% of the income distribution

28

27

27

Top 50% of the income distribution

72

73

73

Top 40% of the income distribution

63

64

64

Top 30% of the income distribution

53

53

54

Top 20% of the income distribution

41

41

42

Top 10% of the income distribution

26

27

27

Source: Family Resources Survey: Table A3, Households Below Average Income 1994/5 to 1998/9, DSS, 2000

Table 4: Percentage changes in real income between 1979 and 1995/96 by decile group, Great Britain

Decile group

Income before housing costs

Income after housing costs

First (bottom)

12

-9

Second

18

5

Third

21

12

Fourth

24

23

Fifth

30

31

Sixth

34

36

Seventh

38

41

Eighth

41

46

Ninth

49

54

Tenth (top)

62

70

Total population

42

44

Source: DSS Households Below Average Income, 1979-1996/7, Government Statistical Service, 1998.

Note: Some figures are of less certain accuracy due to sampling error or the choice of equivalence scales

Again updating these figures has not been possible directly, but the DSS do provide similar information (Table 5). Together with other research, for example from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS, 2000), it can be considered that at best movement towards reversing the growing inequality in Britain has been slow and dependent on means tested benefits.

Table 5: Percentages changes in real income by decile 1994/ 5 - 1998/ 9

Decile group

Income before housing costs

Income after housing costs

First (bottom)

(4)

(17)

Second

6

6

Third

7

9

Fourth

8

9

Fifth

8

9

Sixth

7

9

Seventh

8

9

Eighth

8

9

Ninth

9

10

Tenth (top)

12

(13)

Tot popn (median)

7

9

(mean)

10

12

Source: Family Resources Survey: Table A1, Households Below Average Income 1994/5 to 1998/9, DSS, 2000

These Tables demonstrate the need to redress the balance in British society. At a time when social inclusion is being prioritised, there is a need to review the tax system as a whole to ensure that it does not undermine the position of the poorest even further. Not only have the highest paid seen their incomes rise the fastest since 1979, but the richest now pay a lower proportion of their income in taxes.

It is useful to recall that many of these moves to greater inequality were not inevitable, represented a reversal of the post-war Keynesian consensus and can be re-addressed through a progressive tax system. Thus, rather than having a top rate of income tax of 40%, in 1987-88, even after almost nine years of the Thatcher Government, the highest rate of income tax was 60%, with a progression in 5 percentage point steps from 40% beyond the basic rate of 27%. Since then there have effectively been but two rates, giving Britain an even more proportional, rather than progressive, income tax system ? marking it out historically and from the position in much of the rest of Europe.

The concomitant shift of taxation onto indirect taxes has had two important impacts: continuously increasing the regressive nature of the system as a whole and introducing means testing to a wider range of groups.

According to the DSS Income Related Benefits Estimates of Take-Up in 1998/99 (DSS website, 8/12/2000), the take-up of Council Tax Benefit, in particular, is very low. The rate varies between 75% and 81% by caseload, and between 77% and 84% by expenditure. The DSS report these take-up rates have remained virtually unchanged in recent years, and appear to be lowest amongst pensioners when analysed by either caseload or expenditure. Research by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) ? Does Council Tax Benefit Work?, Clark (1999), has calculated that the families in the lowest income group pay 7.5% of their incomes in Council Tax compared with 1.22% for those in the richest group and when benefit is taken into account 'council tax benefit has comparatively little effect on the burden of the poorest income decile.'Help the Aged argue that "Take- up levels must be one of the most important indicators of whether a benefit works. Over 500,000 pensioners who are entitled to MIG [minimum income guarantee] do not claim it, that is 1 in 5 of all those eligible for the benefit." (Help the Aged website, May 2001). Take-up is higher by those living in local authority rented accommodation than by those living in private rented accommodation, while owner occupiers have the lowest rates of claiming their entitlement. Again these suggest unplanned distributional effects across the country.

In summary, given the demands on the Scottish budget, the challenge is to raise finance for the public services whilst shifting the burden onto those who have the ability to pay. This means looking at the current system of local government finance as it provides both the greatest problems and also, because of the form of the devolution settlement, the opportunity to introduce a progressive new tax to replace the council tax.

4. CURRENT POLITICAL CONTEXT OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE

The findings in Section 3 give an indication of the levels of poverty and inequality to be found in Scotland in the 21st Century. Yet, at a local level the current regressive nature of the Council Tax makes the problem even worse; under the former rating system the ratio of the highest to the lowest rates payable was 14:1, under Council Tax it is 3:1. The large numbers who rely on the means tested Council Tax Benefit in Scotland, 590 thousand, are testament to the regressive nature of this tax. To address these needs and to improve the nature of the tax system requires an innovative approach. A progressive local income tax can be justified on the grounds of equity and the other characteristics of what makes a good tax. Plus, through a more just distribution formula to apportion rate support grant between Scottish local authorities, it will free up resources to be delivered locally for the benefit of the socially excluded.

In many respects in proposing the replacement of the Council Tax with a progressive Scottish Service Tax nothing new is being argued for. What makes it appear radical is the new political and economic climate regarding fiscal policy, which claims that income redistribution cannot be achieved through direct taxation. However, within Scotland the Commission on Local Government and the Scottish Parliament (McIntosh Commission, June 1999) has argued for an overall review of the system of local government finance. These findings echo the long standing campaign by Scotland's local authorities and the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (COSLA) who have likewise been campaigning for a review of the system of local government finance. In response, the Local Government Committee of the Scottish Parliament has been reviewing the financing of local authorities, hearing submissions and debates over much of the past year: (http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/official_report/cttee/local.htm). Their report has been published (Local Government Committee, 6th Report 2002, Report on Inquiry into Local Government Finance. Volume 1 : Report) and is available at http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/official_report/cttee/local-02/lgr02-06-vol01-02.htm#2.

It is gratifying that in hearing our evidence they concluded in their report that:

For the longer term, the Committee recommends that the Executive should examine the feasibility of introducing a Local Income Tax in Scotland - and reducing either councils' dependence on government grants or the amount raised by the Council Tax. (Recommendation xvi)

Having established the scale of the problem, there is a need to restate the rationale for public intervention in the economy, and the role for local spending.

5. LEGITIMACY OF INTERVENTION

In the first report, (see footnote (i)), some discussion was undertaken of the economic theory underpinning the arguments for the introduction of a Scottish Service Tax. This drew upon Scottish and international research to demonstrate that the SST could lead to an expansion not only of the Scottish economy but also of the rest of the UK. Thus, internationally informed research in recent years, (see, Kellermann and Schmidt, 1997; McGregor et al,1997; King, 1984; Laramie and Mair, 1997) confirms that growth through a balanced budget expansion of the Scottish economy is possible, and also beneficial for the wider UK level.

Critically analysing the lessons of Ireland - the 'Celtic Tiger' of the 1990s, its success in terms of growth and development has raised realisable aspirations for Scotland but Ireland has failed to address poverty and social divisions and to create a sustainable growth. Many commentators have argued that if their economy is to keep on developing then there will have to be more attention paid to the needs of the poor and others on low incomes (Tansey 1998, Sweeney 1998). Further, and of relevance to the form of local government finance system, redistributing income in favour of the poor can lead to an expansion of the economy more efficiently than tax cuts for better off (McNicoll, 1992).

close

6. FINANCE AND FORMS OF INTERVENTION

At present, the Scottish Executive does not plan to expand the Scottish economy through increased public expenditure. Although there is to be growth in the Scottish Budget, this follows automatically from increases at Westminster and not from any Keynesian, socialist or interventionist philosophy of the Scottish Government, rather the changes result without any positive actions from the Executive. It also, until the publication of the Comprehensive Spending Review, had not been proposing to increase expenditure in real terms on health, education, housing or local government services.

Following the Chancellor's Comprehensive Spending Review, the Scottish budget has been improved, with subsequent proposals to expand expenditure in some areas. The recent publication of the Government's spending plans for the next few years affords some comparison with the recent past.

The logic of the Musgrave (1959) and Newlands (1999) analysis, and the legacy of 25 years public expenditure constraints, is that the Scottish Parliament should be seeking to expand the economy through reallocation of resources within Scotland. This should have real positive effects on the levels of growth in the Scottish economy and on the provision of public services. To achieve these benefits, however, will require positive interventions in the economy (as demonstrated by the fiscal federalist literature) and an increase in Scottish public expenditure. To do this will require an increase in taxes in Scotland, given the effective Barnett formula restrictions on the block grant coming to Holyrood (Mackay, 2001; Maclean, 2001).

To address the need for such finance, economists at the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde (McGregor et al 1997) have demonstrated that the imposition of higher direct taxes in Scotland could lead to an expansion both in the number of jobs and in output in Scotland, with no adverse effects on the Scottish balance of payments, unemployment or inflation. They conclude that in the long run a 'tartan tax' of £390million would raise GDP and employment by 0.45% and 0.42%, respectively, with unemployment falling by 0.72%.

The assumptions underpinning their analysis are not unduly restrictive and recognise that Scotland has a very open economy, as admitted above. The critical conditions to achieve this range of benefits are not that stringent and would not be alien to the politics of the 1960s and 1970s, nor critically to many other member states of the EU, where genuine social partnership is accepted. To invest in Scottish public services, taxes incomes must be developed while there needs to be a recognition by government and the country of the benefits of redistribution and investment for higher and sustainable growth.

The need for a new consensus on the priorities of Scotland must include all social partners, and especially the trades unions. The stronger the belief in the benefits of enhanced public investment, the higher the long-term impacts on public services, social inclusion and economic growth.

7. A LOCAL INCOME TAX: A SCOTTISH SERVICE TAX

In an attempt to redress the identified problems within Scotland it is suggested that a form of local income tax is required to replace the Council Tax. This should be progressive, based on ability-to-pay and should be set at marginal rates sufficient to increase the revenues raised to permit an expansion in public investment. It should be established at the Scottish level, with revenues distributed across local government areas according to needs. The Scottish Service Tax should be dedicated to local government expenditure and, with the recognition of the advantages of holistic policy implementation, the expansion of budgets, particularly in Scotland's poorer areas, should lead to significant improvements in the health, education and housing conditions of Scotland's citizens. Such planned improvement in essential service provision across Scotland delivers the name of the new tax proposal: The Scottish Service Tax.

Previous research on the possible introduction of a local income tax cumulated in the findings of The Report on Local Government Finance (Layfield Committee) which considered a tax a "serious candidate" for financing local authority expenditure. In our first report, the problems raised by Layfield were addressed systematically, with costs, fiscal flight and UK demand management each covered in some depth. The conclusion was that now all could be met within the Scottish context, removing these barriers to its successful introduction.

8. ISSUES OF LEGAL COMPETENCY

As rehearsed previously, it would appear from the White Paper on devolution that the Scottish Parliament has got the authority and legitimacy to alter the form of taxation for local authority spending, given that it has the responsibility for determining the form of local taxation.

However, according to SPICE:

"the legal position on whether the Parliament has the legal competency to legislate for the introduction of a specific local income tax is not so clear. Schedule 5 of the Scotland Act 1998 sets out reserved matters that are not within the legal competency of the Parliament.

Reservations

Section A1 Fiscal, economic and monetary policy, including the issue and circulation of money, taxes and excise duties, government borrowing and lending, control over the UK public expenditure, the exchange rate and the Bank of England.

Exception

Local taxes to fund local authority expenditure (for example council tax and non-domestic rates).

No further definition of 'local taxes' is given therefore this exception alone does not specifically rule out local income taxes as long as the revenue raised is used 'to fund local authority expenditure'".

As devolution is a dynamic process, with changes and pressures for developments in other parts of the UK significant drivers for what happens in Scotland, we suggest that once the Government grasp the need for a Barnett Formula within England to improve the distribution of resources across the English regions, there will be a wider debate on the merits of expanding the 'single pot' which has been introduced for the regional development agencies (RDAs) there. Moving towards a more transparent fiscal system for the constituent parts of the UK would involve an improved understanding of the need for greater fiscal autonomy everywhere at sub-national (UK) level and the advantages of devolving power within this most centralised of states. Although many of these arguments were rehearsed in the original report, the greater flexibility offered by these recent Treasury inspired changes open up the opportunity to consider further changes. Second, some of the other arguments put forward by Professor Midwinter to the Local Government Committee (11 December 2001) appear to suggest the possibility to retain the Council Tax Benefit (discussed below) by continuing Council Tax in parallel with a local income tax, implying that there may well be more flexibility in the arrangements with Westminster than expected. Indeed, neither he nor the Committee had verified whether the Parliament could give tax varying powers to local authorities with regard to a local income tax (Col 247 9). That this has not been explored appears to be a very important omission as it undermines one of the three reasons he has given for not supporting the SST (Col 246 5). As the loss of Council Tax Benefit was another criticism, this leaves only the third: the question of whether we require all taxes to be progressive, dealt with in Section 3 above.

The practical issues of administering a Scottish Service Tax have been addressed already in the mechanisms put in place for handling the changes to the Income Tax Acts necessitated by an implementation of the Scottish Parliament's tax varying power. The Scottish Service Tax would specifically and exclusively fund local authority expenditure. In our opinion, it is therefore legally competent for the Scottish Parliament to implement such a proposal under the terms of the Scotland Act.

9. NON-DOMESTIC TAX AND RATE SUPPORT GRANT

As anticipated in the first report, a criticism of the proposals to implement the Scottish Service Tax could be that even more of the local control over raising of local authority finance was being removed. To promote local democratic accountability, it was proposed that non-domestic tax policy and business rate levels should be returned to local authority control in the immediate term. This was supported by the Local Government Committee with their recommendation that the non-domestic rate should be returned to local authority control (6th Report 2002, Report on Inquiry into Local Government Finance. Volume 1 : Report . By suggesting that the Business Rate would be set, collected and retained locally the loss of direct control over their revenues raised from domestic residents would be replaced by greater autonomy with the return of this tax power. Local authorities already bill and collect non-domestic rates and this return of control therefore creates no problems in relation to the mechanisms required. We make further proposals below for a land value tax, initially to supplement and then to replace the UBR. Also, it seems to us a rather restricted view of local democracy to judge that the citizens will only make electoral choices based on taxes and not also on the quality, efficiency, equity and economy of service delivery. More strongly, there should be a recognition that expenditure decisions and priorities are just as legitimate areas for the electorate to discriminate between parties and for local authorities to intervene in their communities according to the expressed wishes of their residents. Exclusive focus on local taxes unnecessarily restricts consideration of the role of local councils, and itself undermines democracy.

The amount of finance raised in each area would be taken into account in a new distribution formula for supporting all local government in Scotland based on a new needs assessment, which would be weighted much more towards tackling deprivation and meeting needs than is currently the case.

Beyond this immediate change, it can be argued that the development of a betterment tax or other form of land value taxation proposal should begin forthwith, with serious consideration of exemptions being made available to small businesses with a low turnover and low profit level. A sensible and fair rebate scheme would assist the small business sector, and would be in keeping with the business start-up and aftercare programmes of the Executive, Scottish Enterprise and local government for small and new businesses (Danson et al, 2000), while the betterment tax concept would ensure that appropriate revenue is raised from larger enterprises and from land speculation activity. Land Reform Scotland has argued this case at length through written and verbal evidence to the Local Government Committee. As a useful introduction to the principles of land value taxation we commend their website and submissions to the Committee. In the longer term we support such a move to raising public finances for local government in Scotland. We also note that this is supported by the Liberal Democrats; Bob Kiley backs a land tax to pay for the investment required for the London Underground; and the RICS is organising a major conference to explore such issues. The SNP's proposed charge on parking spaces at out-of-town shopping centres likewise is a form of LVT, albeit ad hoc and lacking a comprehensive framework. In evidence to the Local Government Committee, Professor Brown of Liverpool John Moores University reported an expectation that tax rates would converge for mobile factors of production. This suggests that tax on the immobile factor ? land ? offers the only long term flexibility in revenue generation to local and regional governments in the new Europe. LVT also is claimed to have no disincentive effects on labour or capital, so protecting growth and development within Scotland.

Nevertheless, although it seems agreed that doing nothing is not a realistic option for local government finance in Scotland, some argue that neither is radical change likely to be successful (Midwinter in evidence to the Local Government Committee, December 2001). The SST presents itself as a medium term initiative to address social justice; other more radical measures may take longer to become acceptable on their own.

10. SCOTTISH POPULATION STATISTICS

The latest estimates of the demographic composition of Scotland in 1999-2000, the year for which the analysis in this paper has been constructed, are provided by the Scottish Household Survey (available on www.scotland.gov.uk/library2/doc06/hsb02-03.htm). These allow a consideration of the composition of households and their incomes. Recalling that a prime objective of a move from the regressive Council Tax to a redistributive Scottish Service Tax is to alleviate poverty, it is important to recognise the scale of the problem. Almost half, 46%, of all households in Scotland in 1999-2000 had a household income of less than £10,000. Where there was only one adult in the house, then nearly three-quarters (73%) had an income of less than £6,000. Amongst pensioners and lone parents, incomes were particularly low, with 85% of all single pensioners, 54% of all other pensioner-only households, and 66% of all lone parent households having incomes of less than £10,000. By contrast, where there were children in the household and two adults (i.e. small families) the proportion below this threshold was 16% and 14% where there were three or more adults (large families); for those without children, 25% of two adult households had an income of less than £10,000 and 14% where there were more than two adults living together.

As well as focusing on many of the individuals and families prioritised in the social inclusion and social justice agenda, there is an important gender dimension to household incomes. Although 35% of households with male heads had an income below £10,000, for female headed households it was 61%.

As the Scottish Service Tax is to be levied on the incomes of individuals and not households, the above analysis of the Scottish Household Survey can only provide an indication of the sorts of numbers who will be exempted from the SST. However, the figures do confirm that for households with only one adult or with no adult working, between half and two-thirds would be below the £10,000 threshold and so would not pay SST, nor would they be means tested outwith the inland revenue returns that many complete anyway.

Figures recently published on 1999-2000 earnings of men and women in Scotland (Social Focus on Women and Men 2002, Scottish Executive, 2002), confirm that there are significant gender imbalances in the incomes of individuals. On average, men working full-time were paid £21,996 per annum in that year, women earned £16,437 or 75%. This significant difference will have been exacerbated by the higher proportions of women either working part-time hours or unable to work a full year because of caring responsibilities. For manual women workers, the average pay was £11,230,

Table 6: Average Gross Weekly Earnings of full-time employees by occupational group, Scotland, April 2000

Occupational Group

Male

Female

Female as a % of male earnings

Managers/Administrators

619.4

426.5

69

Professional Occupations

593.0

491.4

83

Associate Professional/Technical

464.2

382.0

82

Clerical/Secretarial Occupations

286.9

254.8

89

Craft/Related Occupations

373.4

236.9

63

Personal/Protective Service Occupations

351.2

233.9

67

Sales Occupations

335.6

214.3

64

Plant/Machine Operatives

337.1

238.0

71

Other Occupations

285.9

187.0

65

All Non-Manual Occupations

496.4

335.3

68

All Manual Occupations

335.4

217.3

65

Total

423.0

316.1

75

Source: New Earnings Survey, Office for National Statistics

suggesting that most were under or only just above the £10,000 threshold to be applied under the SST.

A measure which sought to tackle poverty directly by leaving more income in the hands of the poor without resorting to a targeted means tested system of benefits would therefore assist many of the poorest families in Scotland. It would also address the need for greater transparency in support for women without perpetuating institutional discrimination through the welfare system and redistribute incomes in their favour directly and without exclusively relying on benefits and other forms of handouts.

11. A SCOTTISH SERVICE TAX: PROPOSED LEVELS

In the previous reports to the Scottish Socialist Party (1999) and to the Local Government Committee of the Scottish Parliament (18 January 2001), illustrations were produced of possible marginal SST rates. These suggested that sufficient income could be raised to more than match the revenue produced by the Council Tax for local authorities, while meeting all associated charges. This paper now updates this earlier research by using more recently available income figures from the Inland Revenue and also addresses the possible need to increase the tax take from the SST to cover the loss of Council Tax Benefit, if the Treasury and Whitehall departments (especially Department of Works and Pensions) were unwilling to continue to transfer to Scotland the equivalent of this sum (estimated to be about £276m in 1999/2000).

Each of these potential needs to update the previous analysis was recognised in the earlier reports. Further, it was argued that there are a number of problems with the data required to establish the operation and rates of the Scottish Service Tax:

In the previous analysis, data from the Inland Revenue were applied, and it assumed that (a) the distribution of Scottish unearned income relative to the UK as a whole was the same as the relative distribution of earned income; in effect it was assumed that Scots received less in terms of both earned and unearned income, and so for both PAYE and taxed investment income; (b) within each income band, incomes were evenly distributed around the mid-point of that band, apart from the highest band where a conservative assumption was made of the distribution of incomes; (c) the Treasury increased the Scottish Block Grant by the equivalent of the Council Tax Benefit foregone with the movement from Council Tax to the Scottish Service Tax.

From the updated Inland Revenue figures, which cover all taxpayers in Scotland, these data have addressed points (a) and (b) above, with the inclusion of all incomes liable to income tax.

In the analysis below, we review the marginal rates and revenues for the SST applying the updated Inland Revenue figures for 1998-99 and 1999-2000, and then extend the analysis to incorporate the potential need to meet the loss of income to the local authority finances from the failure of the Department of Works & Pensions (DWP) in Whitehall to transfer the equivalent of the Council Tax Benefit to the Scottish Exchequer.

Adjustments for Increased Incomes: 1998-1999

Statistics for individuals' incomes in Scotland in 1998-99 have been supplied, through SPICE, and these allow an update to the estimated revenues for that year. The Inland Revenue identified 2.3 million income taxpayers in Scotland, paying £6,460 million income tax. The improved disaggregation of information on higher income groups showed that their average income before tax were appreciably greater than had been believed in the first report. The average incomes of those 13 thousand individuals earning over £90,000 was in excess of £183 thousand in 1998-99. At the other end of the scale, there were 882 thousand people with incomes between £4,195 (the lower tax threshold) and £10,000.

As before, additional costs would be incurred by the Inland Revenue in collecting the new tax, and it is suggested that these would be met from the Scottish Budget centrally. According to estimates collated by Jackson, this would be a relatively small amount of £15m annualised, with perhaps the same again for companies. It has been assumed that this would be deducted from the block grant estimate

In the year 1999-2000, the direct costs of collecting Council Tax were of the order of £33.5m, with some £35m spent on administering Housing and Council Tax Benefit. These sums have been fairly stable in recent years, suggesting that they would continue at these rates in the near future.

To undertake the analysis, we were asked to assume that the lower threshold at which the Scottish Service Tax would apply would continue to be £10,000; this would ensure that in effect all those existing on basic pensions alone or with modest occupational pensions, on state benefits, those paid less than £192 per week and students would be exempt, and where applicable they would have been released from paying the Council Tax and so have seen their disposable income increase.

Previously, we noted that the Treasury had seen its revenues increase by 9% in 1999-2000 alone, due to higher than expected wage rises, bonus payments in the City and higher sales of drink and tobacco. This would suggest an availability of tax revenues to meet the modest Council Tax Benefit obligation, while the advantages of an automatic stabiliser in the Scottish economy could be significant. Nevertheless, the uncertainty over the future of the Council Tax Benefit payments requires some caution in assuming the equivalence of their continuing flow to Scotland.

Incorporating these statistics and assumptions into the calculations for the Scottish Service Tax in 1998-99 (Table 13.2 in the original report) suggests that, compared with the anticipated Council Tax collected over that period of between £1.2 and £1.4 billion, the SST would have realised £1.3 billion, a gain of between £123 and £172 million. The marginal rates have been maintained at the previous levels and the increase in the surplus over the previous estimates of £50 million is due to the general rise in incomes and the better estimates of higher incomes. These figures exclude Council Tax Benefit of £266 million, from both Council Tax and SST revenues.

Adjustments for Increased Incomes: 1999-2000

While the data from the Inland Revenue for 1998-99 presented information on all incomes, the statistics supplied for 1999-2000 only cover incomes of taxpayers. However, for this more recent year, greater degrees of disaggregation of the higher middle income salary band have been provided, with the £30-50,000 group being subdivided into three bands. This allows both more precise estimates of tax impacts within this range and a more detailed exploration of the effects of the SST and Water Charges on these taxpayers. These data suggest that there were 2,260 million taxpayers in Scotland with aggregate incomes of £40,300 million, paying £6,420 billion in income tax. As these totals are slightly below those of the previous year, when the UK and Scottish economies were believed to be expanding, there is some caution required in interpreting the following results. However, as illustrations of what are the likely yields of a Scottish Service Tax, the analysis is rigorous.

Since 1997, there have been improved collection rates of council tax; while in 1999-2000, incomes, council tax rates and receipts have all increased compared with the previous year. A further complication in comparing one financial year with another is that the local authorities continue to collect arrears of council tax over several years so that the apparent revenues for any particular year will vary with the date of assessing the totals of actual council tax received. Moreover, some of the analyses (and responses to our initial paper) of the effects of council tax have relied on the amounts billed rather than collected, while others have failed to separate out the council tax benefit. The following results are presented using the best estimates for 1999-2000 currently available (20 February 2002) of actual council tax receipts, council tax benefits paid, and incomes.

The estimates for the SST in 1999-2000 suggest that £1,473 million could have been raised by applying the marginal rates shown in Table 7 compared with the actual council tax receipts of £1,193 million (excluding Council Tax Benefit). On average those liable to pay income tax in Scotland would be subject to a SST charge of £652 or 3.7%. Addressing the comments after the initial proposals that fewer marginal rates would be preferable, although this may introduce certain relatively high increases at particular incomes, there are only four non-zero rates proposed. Starting at 4.5% on incomes between £10,000 and £30,000, the marginal SST rate increases to 15% for that part of an individual's income between £30,000 and £50,000, to 18% between £50,000 and £90,000, and is then levied at 20% for all income beyond £90,000. Coupled with the highest rate of income tax of 40%, this implies that the maximum marginal rate in Scotland would be 60%, the same as in 1988-89 and lower than in many other social democrat members of the EU. With an aggregate gain of about £280 million, this demonstrates the robustness of the SST over time in securing local authority income at non-punitive rates of tax. The figures presented here are for illustration only and represent the minimal revenues anticipated from the SST at the rates given, higher marginal rates may have a disincentive effect or lead to fiscal flight ? but not to the extent of undermining the principle or viability of the SST. The highest rates of tax presented here also compare with rates in areas of Denmark, for instance, where local and regional taxes are about 20% and 11% respectively, with progression ensured solely through the national tax rates.

Potential Loss of Council Tax Benefit Payments to Scottish Local Authorities

In the previous report, it was argued that it would have been unacceptable for the Treasury to remove the equivalent of Council Tax Benefit from the aggregate of public expenditure in Scotland just because a different way was being used to raise the finance for local authority services. Although it was demonstrated that protecting this element of the Social Security system would have no net adverse effects on the UK Exchequer, while the monies would continue to be dedicated to Scottish local authority expenditure, debate in the Local Government Committee and in the media and Scottish Parliament regarding the introduction of free care for the elderly now suggest that there would not be a compensating transfer to the Scottish Block Grant to compensate the Scottish budget. This debate is ongoing, nevertheless. In these circumstances it has been necessary to consider how the lost £276 million in 1999-2000 could be raised from within the SST revenues.

With a proposed surplus of £280 million in 1999-2000 realised by the replacement of Council Tax with SST, it could be argued that this simply could be applied to address this shortfall, setting the same marginal rates. The surplus to the local authorities would then be £4 million in 1999-2000 over what they actually have collected in council tax and council tax benefit for that year by early 2002. Alternatively, the marginal rates could be increased to maintain the higher funding available to local authorities under SST.

Finally in this consideration of the implications of a failure to deliver the equivalent of current council tax benefit to the Scottish local authorities, of the £276 million savings to the UK Exchequer Scotland could expect to receive about 8% of this or £22 million through lower general taxes or increased public expenditure through the Barnett Formula. The net gain to the Scottish budget from the introduction of the SST after consideration of the CTB would thus be between £4 million and £26 million, depending on the decisions of the UK Chancellor.

In the research conducted for this potential tax, a number of conditions were incorporated into the proposed Scottish Service Tax. In particular, it was proposed that it should: increase revenues beyond the levels of the Council Tax; provide exemptions for certain groups; meet the classical criteria for a local tax; and be progressive. The updates to 1999-2000 have retained these working assumptions and demonstrated that a Scottish Service Tax levied on the individual income taxpayer in Scotland, even under conditions most favourable to the Council Tax, could still raise equivalent amounts without encouraging fiscal flight, excessive costs or problems for UK demand management.

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TABLE 7

Scottish Service Tax Model : 1999-00

Range of total income (lower limit)

£

Number liable for tax (000s)

Total income tax paid (£m)

Marginal rate of SST

Total SST paid (£000)

Average SST paid (£)

Average income (£)

SST paid as % of income

4335

58

2

0.0%

0

0

4655

0.0%

5000

621

280

0.0%

0

0

7681

0.0%

10000

569

800

4.5%

60750

107

12373

0.9%

15000

365

890

4.5%

120150

329

17315

1.9%

20000

403

1580

4.5%

257850

640

24218

2.6%

30000

136

825

15.0%

200400

1474

33824

4.4%

40000

29

257

15.0%

81600

2814

42759

6.6%

45000

20

214

15.0%

66750

3338

46250

7.2%

50000

35

512

18.0%

185100

5289

57714

9.2%

70000

11

254

18.0%

106620

9693

82182

11.8%

90000

14

795

20.0%

393400

28100

175000

16.1%

Total

2260

6420

1472620

652

17832

3.7%

compared with the anticipated Council Tax [including CTB] collected over that period (£1.469bn) this represents an increase of c£4m.

TABLE 8

The Water Charge Model : 1999-00

Range of total income (lower limit) £

Number liable for tax (000s)

Total income tax paid (£m)

Marginal rate of water charge

Total water charge paid (£000)

Average water charge paid (£)

Average income (£)

Water charge paid as % of income

4335

58

2

0.0%

0

0

4655

0.0%

5000

621

280

0.0%

0

0

7681

0.0%

10000

569

800

1.5%

20250

36

12373

0.3%

15000

365

890

1.5%

40050

110

17315

0.6%

20000

403

1580

1.5%

85950

213

24218

0.9%

30000

136

825

1.5%

48600

357

33824

1.1%

40000

29

257

3.0%

15450

533

42759

1.2%

45000

20

214

3.0%

12750

638

46250

1.4%

50000

35

512

3.0%

34350

981

57714

1.7%

70000

11

254

3.0%

18870

1715

82182

2.1%

90000

14

795

3.0%

63000

4500

175000

2.6%

Total

2260

6420

339270

150

17832

0.8%

compared with the anticipated domestic water charges collected over that period (£329.4m) this represents an increase of about £10m.

12. A SCOTTISH WATER CHARGE

Following parallel arguments to the establishment of the SST, this section will consider the introduction of a progressive water charge, and in particular will address the costs of collection, the possible marginal rates, and the resulting tax revenues. Finally, the results for the SST and Water Charge will be combined to illustrate the likely aggregate effects on individuals and households of a move to a progressive system for funding local government and water and sewerage in Scotland.

At present the costs incurred at the retail level, across the three water authorities for billing, bad debts etc., are about £45 million. If collected as per the SST through an Inland Revenue centralised system, already prepared for the 'tartan tax', these would be reduced significantly and so represent potential savings to the industry and taxpayer. It is our understanding that no social security benefits are available nor proposed (Scottish Executive 2000) for covering all or any of the costs of water charges so that there would be no potential loss of income to the Scottish economy from a movement from the present system of water charges to one of a progressive income related system. The effects of a change to a progressive system, therefore, would be redistributive only, though there may be the possibility of some fiscal flight generated by high levels of water charges; the estimates below have taken into account the impacts of any out-migration by incorporating lower margin al rates into the analysis than apply elsewhere.

To undertake the analysis based on the updated income figures discussed above, certain limitations facing the research must be recognised:

  1. there have been continuing differential movements in earnings for different income groups since 1999-2000 so that we focus on that year in particular to illustrate the sorts of rates required to meet the funding needs of Scottish Water;
  2. the water industry in Scotland is in a great state of flux with proposals for a single water authority to cover the whole country. With suggested harmonisation of charges across Scotland and a high degree of investment being proposed in the light of EU and other directives, this effectively means substantial increases 2001/02 ? 2004/05 in water charges of 19.9% on average (ranging from a decrease of 2.1% in the North to increases of 27.1% in the East and 28.8% in the West of Scotland.) In 2005-06 (there would be no increases in this final year), harmonised domestic charges would be approximately £343 per Band D household (Water Commissioner Scotland, 2001). This compares to the current (2001-2002) Band D charge in the East of Scotland Water Authority of £270.00; in the West of Scotland Water Authority of £266.40; and in the North of Scotland Water Authority of £350.18. Comparing the position in 1999-2000 to these rapidly changing circumstances creates problems for any analysis of impacts on council tax or income tax payers. To address the possible implications of these significant changes in domestic bills two scenarios are considered ? matching the actual water charge collected in 1999-2000 and meeting a higher funding target to reflect the long term investment needs of the sector.
  3. revenues across the three Scottish water authorities have increased by 57.2% over the period 1996/97 (audited) - 2001/02 (budgeted), with 37.8% of that rise being imposed since 1998/99. Over the whole period, the increases faced by domestic users have been 105.2% while non-domestic users have seen a 16.1% rise. So, there are two issues here, the relative charges of domestic and non-domestic users in the coming years and the scheduling and time lags of changes in incomes and charges.

The scenario presented here using 1999-2000 income data shows how the actual amount (£329.4 million) collected in that year by the existing Water and Sewerage Charge could have been raised more equitably and efficiently with a progressive water tax. A small surplus of £10 million is also generated with these rates, sufficient to cover any contingencies and set-up costs of the new system not explicitly recognised. Table 8 shows the effects of adopting a progressive Water Tax with marginal rates of 0% for incomes under £10,000, 1.5% on incomes between £10,000 and £40,000, and 3% on those bands of marginal income over £40,000. For someone on an income of £12,500 the charge would be under £40; for an individual on £25,000 the charge would be £250; and for an individual on £50,000 the cost would be £750. These compare with actual charges of £209.75 (North), £186.00 (East), £189.10 (West) for a Band D house in the three water authority areas in that year.

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Non-Domestic Water Charges

The legislation introducing the merger of the three Scottish water authorities is partly predicated on the need to address forthcoming challenges from private(ised) companies entering the market here. Such competition is reckoned to be especially threatened to supply water and sewerage services to large industrial and commercial complexes in central Scotland. This potential threat to the economies of scale currently enjoyed by provider and user presents these large consumers with a good deal of bargaining power. A consequence of this is that charges on new non-domestic users have hardly risen in real terms in the last decade, if at all. The need to retain a high proportion of the non-domestic contracts in the public domain requires that a balance has to be struck between optimising user charges, reflecting the contestable market challenges, while protecting and continuing to realise the lower costs of large scale provision offered by the publicly owned water authorities. At the same time, and not inconsistently, the need to conserve water, to reduce effluent and other sewerage disposals, and to protect the environment suggests that metering of non-domestic consumers should be completed ? many businesses already being metered. By mirroring the disciplinary methods of the market, and promoting conservation, the installation of metering should align user charges and real social costs more closely. Further study on these aspects of the development and investment imperatives of the water sector in Scotland are required, not least to explore the likely strategies of market entrants.

Analogous to the impacts of LVT promoted above, therefore, the wider application of water metering for non-domestic consumers should enhance the use and conservation of Scotland's natural resources. This system should evolve over time in light of market challenges and be based on encouraging sustainable growth and development of the Scottish economy.

Combined Water Charge and Scottish Service Tax Model

Given the various assumptions made above, as both are based on current taxable incomes, with consistent banding for tax purposes, the impacts of the introduction of the Scottish Service Tax and the Scottish Water Charge can be considered together. Each is a progressive tax based on income and the same income bands have been applied in both cases.

Table 9 presents the results for individual incomes for 1999-2000, and so combines Tables 7 and 8. This analysis suggests that all the public expenditure of local authorities and the three water authorities in Scotland in 1999-2000 funded by the council tax, council tax benefit, and domestic water and sewerage charges would have been covered by the combined SST & WC, with further expansion of budgets of £4 million and £10 million, respectively. In addition, Scotland's share of the £276 million (about £22 million) no longer paid as Council Tax Benefit would be available in some form of public expenditure or tax savings.

In aggregate, £1812 million would have been raised through this combined progressive tax, with all the poorest in society, those with income under £10,000 exempt from the tax, and others contributing according to their ability to pay. On average, Scots actually paying income tax in 1999-2000 would have faced a combined bill of £802 or 4.5% of income. This compares with average council tax of £849 and water and sewerage charges of £209.75 (North), £186.00 (East), £189.10 (West) for Band D householders. For those on incomes over £10,000, the marginal rate varies between 6.0% and 23%, with £150 or 1.2% of income being paid by those on £12500, £900 or 3.6% by those on £25,000, and about £4650 or 9.3% for someone on £50,000 per annum. With an upper combined marginal rate of 23%, the highest aggregate marginal income, SST & WC tax rate would be 63%, or just 3% above the prevailing rate in 1988-89. Comparing not unfavourably with our nearest continental competitors in the EU, these rates appear reasonable and should not generate fiscal flight to a degree that would concern a Scottish chancellor.

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TABLE 9

Combined Water Charge and Scottish Service Tax Model : 1999-00

Range of total income (lower limit) £

Total number liable for tax (000s)

Total income tax paid (£m)

Combined water & SST marginal rate

Total water & SST paid (£000)

Average water & SST paid (£)

Average income (£)

Water & SST paid as % of income

4335

58

2

0.0%

0

0

4655

0.0%

5000

621

280

0.0%

0

0

7681

0.0%

10000

569

800

6.0%

81000

142

12373

1.2%

15000

365

890

6.0%

160200

439

17315

2.5%

20000

403

1580

6.0%

343800

853

24218

3.5%

30000

136

825

16.5%

249000

1831

33824

5.4%

40000

29

257

18.0%

97050

3347

42759

7.8%

45000

20

214

18.0%

79500

3975

46250

8.6%

50000

35

512

21.0%

219450

6270

57714

10.9%

70000

11

254

21.0%

125490

11408

82182

13.9%

90000

14

795

23.0%

456400

32600

175000

18.6%

Total

2260

6420

1811890

802

17832

4.5%

compared with the anticipated joint Water & Sewerage Charge and Council Tax collected over that period (£1.798bn [including CTB]) this represents an increase of about £14m.

13. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

A replacement of the regressive Council Tax and Water and Sewerage charge with a more progressive Scottish Service Tax and Water Charge system is feasible and appears to be legally competent. Increased revenues could be raised by such a tax without a significant danger of fiscal flight, disincentive effects, or unacceptable costs. However, more detailed work is needed to evaluate the full impacts of such change in the taxation system, data inadequacies make more comprehensive analysis impossible here. A range of options is available to policymakers, with different exemptions having implications for the revenues raised and/or the marginal rates to be imposed. A number of issues require further exploration:

The Scottish Service Tax and Water Charge have the potential to increase local authority and water authority budgets in a period where Scots consistently have demonstrated a willingness to see increased public expenditure, with the positive consequences of increased employment, improved local services and a raising of standards of education, health and housing across Scotland. The academic literature, based on experiences around the world, also points to the positive multiplier effects on the poorest communities, the regions and also the wider national and UK economies which can be realised by such expansion.

Critically, the Scottish Service Tax and Water Charge system is progressive and re-distributive. It places income redistribution at the heart of service provision and delivery, and taxes citizens according to ability to pay. Disposable incomes would be raised in the most disadvantaged areas of Scotland increasing effective demand most strongly where it is needed most and dampening down demand where there is overheating and highest import leakages from the national economy. The new local government tax system would directly raise the standard of life for many of the poorest in Scotland, particularly pensioners and the low paid. Their level of disposable income would be increased by the abolition of the standard Council Tax and the Water and Sewerage charge and their replacement by the SST & WC system. The expansionary multiplier effects on the Scottish economy would be enhanced further by targeting financial assistance on low income groups (McNicoll, 1992) with consequent benefits for the Scottish and UK economies. Moving the tax and benefits system in Scotland towards the mainstream continental approach to funding local and regional public services is a necessary way to improve the competitiveness of the Scottish economy, creating benefits efficiently, equitably and economically.

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